The following table shows first the rider's actual times in minutes, then the "predicted time" using the least-squares-log-time fit. Thanks to Theodore Sternberg for doing the original version of this analysis!!! (Ted did only week 12, so he figured he could save himself the effort of riding up all the other hills if he modeled things correctly...). The standard error of this fit was approximately 3.9%, so actual times on the climbs would probably differ by about this much (which is a lot!).
w climb 1 Montebello 2 Kings Mt 3 Page Mill 4 OLH 5 Diablo 6 Tam 7 E Hwy 9 8 Mt Hamilton 9 Bohlman Road 10 Quimby Road 11 Henry Coe 12 Sierra Rd name week01 week02 week03 week04 week05 week06 week07 week08 week09 week10 week11 week12 "Anders,Brad" - 22.87 - - - - - - - - - - --> 31.01 22.87 37.80 18.07 56.54 37.50 32.86 81.15 29.51 28.36 35.09 26.08 Alafouzos,John 40.00 27.52 45.40 21.50 65.87 45.58 40.17 99.87 34.78 33.95 40.92 31.87 --> 37.41 27.59 45.60 21.80 68.21 45.23 39.64 97.89 35.60 34.21 42.33 31.47 Anderson,Don - - - - - - - 88.62 - - - - --> 33.87 24.97 41.28 19.73 61.74 40.95 35.88 88.62 32.23 30.97 38.32 28.48 Anderson,Mark - 26.40 42.82 20.67 - 42.83 37.55 95.97 - - 40.46 30.03 --> 35.67 26.30 43.48 20.79 65.04 43.13 37.80 93.35 33.95 32.62 40.36 30.00 Axelrod,Valery - 25.53 41.18 - - - - - - - - 29.58 --> 34.52 25.45 42.08 20.11 62.94 41.74 36.58 90.33 32.85 31.57 39.06 29.04 Baker,James 41.03 31.88 - - - - - - - - - - --> 42.12 31.06 51.35 24.54 76.79 50.93 44.63 110.22 40.08 38.52 47.66 35.43 Baker,Tom - 31.90 - - - - - - - - - - --> 43.26 31.90 52.74 25.21 78.87 52.31 45.84 113.21 41.17 39.56 48.95 36.39 Baldwin,Brad - - - - - - - - - - - 31.22 --> 37.12 27.37 45.25 21.63 67.67 44.88 39.33 97.13 35.32 33.95 42.00 31.22 Barmettler,Bart - - - - - - - 81.57 - 28.82 36.72 - --> 31.71 23.38 38.65 18.48 57.81 38.34 33.60 82.97 30.17 29.00 35.88 26.67 Bayner,Alex - - - - - - - 103.95 - - - - --> 39.73 29.29 48.42 23.15 72.43 48.03 42.09 103.95 37.80 36.33 44.95 33.41 Bell,Jeff - - - 20.12 - - - - - - - - --> 34.53 25.46 42.09 20.12 62.94 41.74 36.58 90.34 32.86 31.57 39.06 29.04 Benishin,Liz - - 45.92 22.57 69.53 45.55 39.85 96.73 35.55 33.52 42.33 31.72 --> 37.59 27.72 45.82 21.90 68.53 45.45 39.82 98.36 35.77 34.37 42.53 31.62 Bergstend,Don 31.47 - - - - - - - - - - - --> 31.47 23.20 38.36 18.33 57.37 38.05 33.34 82.34 29.94 28.78 35.60 26.47 Blair,Steve 35.25 25.95 - 20.75 - - - - - - - - --> 35.35 26.07 43.09 20.60 64.45 42.74 37.46 92.50 33.64 32.33 40.00 29.73 Blake,John 37.27 - - - - - - - - - - - --> 37.27 27.48 45.43 21.71 67.94 45.06 39.48 97.52 35.46 34.08 42.16 31.35 Blake,Susie 35.13 - 46.67 - - - - - - - - - --> 36.67 27.04 44.71 21.37 66.86 44.34 38.86 95.97 34.90 33.54 41.49 30.85 Bloom,Greg - - - - - - - - 33.89 - - - --> 35.61 26.26 43.41 20.75 64.92 43.06 37.73 93.18 33.89 32.57 40.29 29.95 Bone,Richard 40.93 28.45 - 23.25 67.70 - 40.78 101.87 37.24 38.40 42.17 31.59 --> 38.96 28.73 47.50 22.70 71.04 47.11 41.28 101.96 37.08 35.63 44.09 32.77 Brenninger,Paul - - - - - - - - - - 44.72 - --> 39.53 29.15 48.18 23.03 72.06 47.79 41.88 103.43 37.61 36.15 44.72 33.25 Bunting,George 47.82 36.03 61.87 - - - - - - - - - --> 49.13 36.23 59.89 28.63 89.57 59.40 52.05 128.56 46.75 44.93 55.59 41.32 Burwald,Matt 55.05 - - - - - - - - - - - --> 55.05 40.59 67.10 32.08 100.36 66.56 58.33 144.05 52.39 50.34 62.29 46.30 Butts,Fred 49.98 - - 27.18 86.75 - 51.73 126.63 - 45.13 - 41.70 --> 48.61 35.84 59.26 28.32 88.63 58.78 51.51 127.20 46.26 44.46 55.00 40.89 Capitolo,Greg - - 47.05 - - - - - - - - - --> 38.60 28.46 47.05 22.49 70.37 46.67 40.90 101.00 36.73 35.30 43.67 32.47 Caragio,Mark 55.05 - 53.10 - - - - - - - - - --> 48.97 36.11 59.69 28.53 89.28 59.21 51.88 128.14 46.60 44.78 55.41 41.19 Carry,Mark - 33.38 - - - - - 115.27 - - - - --> 44.66 32.93 54.44 26.02 81.42 54.00 47.32 116.86 42.50 40.84 50.53 37.56 Casseres,David - 36.03 - - - - - - - - - - --> 48.87 36.03 59.57 28.47 89.09 59.09 51.78 127.87 46.50 44.69 55.29 41.10 Cawthorn,Brian - - - - 85.07 - - - - - - - --> 46.66 34.40 56.88 27.19 85.07 56.42 49.44 122.09 44.40 42.67 52.79 39.25 Chase,Geoff - 24.60 - - - - - - - - - - --> 33.36 24.60 40.67 19.44 60.82 40.34 35.35 87.30 31.75 30.51 37.75 28.06 Chency,Brittain - 31.50 - - - - - - - - - - --> 42.72 31.50 52.07 24.89 77.88 51.65 45.26 111.79 40.65 39.07 48.33 35.93 Clem,Mark 40.67 29.08 - - - - - - - - - - --> 40.05 29.53 48.82 23.34 73.02 48.42 42.43 104.80 38.11 36.63 45.31 33.69 Connelly,Dan 28.72 21.58 37.27 17.37 - 36.87 31.95 - 27.47 26.38 34.89 24.99 --> 29.72 21.91 36.23 17.32 54.18 35.93 31.49 77.76 28.28 27.18 33.62 25.00 Cownery,John - - 87.43 - - - - - - - - - --> 71.73 52.89 87.43 41.79 130.77 86.73 76.00 187.69 68.26 65.60 81.15 60.33 Crockett,Richard - - - 19.85 - - - - - - - - --> 34.07 25.12 41.53 19.85 62.11 41.19 36.10 89.15 32.42 31.16 38.55 28.65 Curran,Lisa - - - - - - 43.65 110.92 - - - 34.00 --> 41.33 30.47 50.38 24.08 75.35 49.97 43.79 108.14 39.33 37.80 46.76 34.76 Cutts,Christopher - - - - 60.92 - - - - - - - --> 33.41 24.64 40.73 19.47 60.92 40.40 35.40 87.43 31.80 30.56 37.80 28.10 Davis,Darrel - - 52.37 - - - - - - - - - --> 42.96 31.68 52.37 25.03 78.32 51.94 45.52 112.41 40.88 39.29 48.61 36.13 Deal,Steve - - 37.63 - - - - - - - - - --> 30.87 22.76 37.63 17.99 56.29 37.33 32.71 80.79 29.38 28.23 34.93 25.97 Duffy,Phil - - - - 56.02 - - - - - - - --> 30.73 22.66 37.45 17.90 56.02 37.15 32.55 80.40 29.24 28.10 34.76 25.84 Eaton,Jim - - 70.53 - - - - - - - - - --> 57.86 42.67 70.53 33.71 105.49 69.96 61.31 151.41 55.06 52.92 65.47 48.67 Elgart,Linda - 28.28 - - - - - - - - - - --> 38.36 28.28 46.76 22.35 69.93 46.38 40.64 100.37 36.50 35.08 43.40 32.26 Emmel,John 35.63 - - - - - 38.70 - - - - - --> 36.08 26.60 43.98 21.02 65.77 43.62 38.22 94.40 34.33 32.99 40.82 30.34 Endo,Jeff 32.95 - - - - - - - - - - - --> 32.95 24.30 40.16 19.20 60.07 39.84 34.91 86.22 31.36 30.13 37.28 27.71 Everman,Tom 48.62 - - - - - - - - - - - --> 48.62 35.85 59.26 28.33 88.64 58.78 51.51 127.22 46.26 44.46 55.01 40.89 Farmer,Dana - - - - - - - 105.08 - - - - --> 40.16 29.61 48.95 23.40 73.21 48.56 42.55 105.08 38.22 36.73 45.44 33.78 Fernandez,Rouel - - - - - - - 195.08 - - - - --> 74.55 54.97 90.88 43.44 135.92 90.14 78.99 195.08 70.95 68.18 84.35 62.71 Fisher,David 38.77 28.62 49.92 23.10 71.82 - 40.92 - - - - - --> 39.36 29.02 47.97 22.93 71.75 47.58 41.70 102.98 37.45 35.99 44.53 33.10 Fox,Kevin 30.83 - - - - - - - - - - - --> 30.83 22.74 37.58 17.97 56.21 37.28 32.67 80.68 29.34 28.20 34.89 25.93 Fulton,Dick - - - 21.60 68.10 - 39.70 - - - - - --> 37.30 27.50 45.46 21.73 68.00 45.10 39.52 97.60 35.49 34.11 42.20 31.37 Gatch,Rod 33.82 25.12 42.28 - 59.80 40.55 36.07 90.72 31.76 33.78 40.61 - --> 34.36 25.34 41.89 20.02 62.65 41.55 36.41 89.92 32.70 31.43 38.88 28.90 Gellin,Gary - - - 24.48 - - - - - - - - --> 42.02 30.98 51.22 24.48 76.61 50.81 44.52 109.95 39.99 38.43 47.54 35.34 Gilbert,Rory 44.93 - - - - - - - - - - - --> 44.93 33.13 54.77 26.18 81.92 54.33 47.61 117.58 42.76 41.09 50.84 37.79 Gloli,Jim - - - - 58.68 - - - - - - - --> 32.19 23.73 39.24 18.75 58.68 38.92 34.10 84.23 30.63 29.44 36.42 27.07 Haas,Diane 55.05 - - - - - - - - - - - --> 55.05 40.59 67.10 32.08 100.36 66.56 58.33 144.05 52.39 50.34 62.29 46.30 Hanles,Mike - - - - - - - 87.63 - - - - --> 33.49 24.69 40.82 19.51 61.06 40.49 35.48 87.63 31.87 30.63 37.89 28.17 Hargrove,Val - - - 21.50 - - - - - - - - --> 36.90 27.21 44.98 21.50 67.27 44.61 39.10 96.56 35.11 33.75 41.75 31.04 Haughey,Jim 37.78 27.92 - - - - - - - - - - --> 37.82 27.89 46.10 22.04 68.95 45.73 40.07 98.97 35.99 34.59 42.79 31.81 Hawley,Lorin - - - 17.78 - - - - - - - - --> 30.52 22.50 37.20 17.78 55.64 36.90 32.34 79.86 29.04 27.91 34.53 25.67 Heerwagen,Belinda - - - - - - - - 33.30 - - 28.71 --> 34.56 25.48 42.13 20.14 63.01 41.78 36.62 90.43 32.89 31.60 39.10 29.07 Heerwagen,Tyler - - - - - - - - 29.34 - - 24.75 --> 30.12 22.21 36.72 17.55 54.92 36.42 31.91 78.82 28.66 27.55 34.08 25.34 Heney,Kevin - - - 25.00 - - - - - - - - --> 42.91 31.64 52.30 25.00 78.22 51.88 45.46 112.27 40.83 39.24 48.55 36.09 Herms,Cheryl - 31.08 - - - - - - - 36.50 - 33.93 --> 40.79 30.08 49.72 23.77 74.37 49.32 43.22 106.74 38.82 37.31 46.15 34.31 Herms,Richard - 24.42 - 20.00 64.03 42.90 - 85.38 32.67 29.95 38.89 28.23 --> 33.95 25.03 41.39 19.78 61.90 41.05 35.97 88.84 32.31 31.05 38.41 28.56 Hertenstein,Tom - 22.22 - - - - - - - - - - --> 30.13 22.22 36.73 17.56 54.93 36.43 31.92 78.84 28.67 27.55 34.09 25.34 Hetchings,Matt - - - - - - - - - - 45.27 - --> 40.01 29.50 48.77 23.31 72.94 48.37 42.39 104.69 38.07 36.59 45.27 33.65 Hogan,Seana - - - - - - - 92.50 - - - - --> 35.35 26.07 43.09 20.60 64.45 42.74 37.45 92.50 33.64 32.33 40.00 29.73 Hogg,Andrew 47.68 - - - - - - - - - - - --> 47.68 35.16 58.12 27.78 86.93 57.65 50.52 124.77 45.38 43.61 53.95 40.11 Hopping,Damien - - - 22.52 106.83 - 45.80 - - - - - --> 46.09 33.98 56.18 26.85 84.02 55.72 48.83 120.60 43.86 42.15 52.14 38.76 Hsu,Brian - - - - 58.52 - - - - - - - --> 32.10 23.67 39.12 18.70 58.52 38.81 34.01 83.99 30.54 29.35 36.31 27.00 Hurkmans,Henry - 30.95 47.28 23.50 - - 45.58 - - 39.50 43.97 - --> 40.99 30.22 49.96 23.88 74.73 49.56 43.43 107.26 39.01 37.49 46.38 34.48 Hutchinson,Marcia 42.75 - 54.60 26.35 80.45 - 47.62 - - - - - --> 44.36 32.71 54.07 25.85 80.87 53.63 47.00 116.07 42.21 40.57 50.19 37.31 Johnson,Kelly - 24.43 - - - - - - - - - - --> 33.14 24.43 40.39 19.31 60.41 40.06 35.11 86.71 31.53 30.30 37.49 27.87 Johnson,Kim - - - - - - - 112.08 - - - - --> 42.83 31.58 52.21 24.96 78.09 51.79 45.38 112.08 40.76 39.17 48.46 36.03 Kallewaard,Dan - - - - - - - - - - - 29.90 --> 35.55 26.21 43.33 20.71 64.81 42.98 37.66 93.01 33.83 32.51 40.22 29.90 Kaplan,Jonathan - 35.90 - - - - - - - - - - --> 48.69 35.90 59.35 28.37 88.76 58.87 51.58 127.40 46.33 44.53 55.09 40.95 Keene,Charles - - - - - - - - - - 53.11 - --> 46.94 34.62 57.22 27.35 85.59 56.76 49.74 122.84 44.67 42.93 53.11 39.49 Kinell,Don - - - - - - - 190.08 - - - - --> 72.64 53.56 88.55 42.33 132.44 87.83 76.96 190.08 69.13 66.43 82.19 61.10 Kitta,Geo - 22.55 39.30 - - - - - - - - - --> 31.40 23.15 38.28 18.30 57.25 37.97 33.27 82.17 29.88 28.72 35.53 26.41 Kolek,Robert - - 41.72 - - - - - - - - - --> 34.22 25.23 41.72 19.94 62.39 41.38 36.26 89.55 32.57 31.30 38.72 28.79 Kurreck,Tim 28.50 - 36.25 - - - - - - - - - --> 29.11 21.47 35.49 16.96 53.08 35.20 30.85 76.18 27.70 26.62 32.94 24.49 Lafayette,Andre - - - - 63.05 - 37.83 - - - - - --> 35.14 25.91 42.84 20.48 64.07 42.49 37.23 91.95 33.44 32.14 39.76 29.56 Lafferty,Greg 32.30 - - - - - - - - - - - --> 32.30 23.82 39.37 18.82 58.89 39.05 34.22 84.52 30.74 29.54 36.55 27.17 Lawrence,Jeff 40.47 - - - - - - 106.87 - - - 35.08 --> 41.00 30.23 49.98 23.89 74.75 49.58 43.44 107.29 39.02 37.50 46.39 34.49 Leary,Brendan 36.58 27.63 45.43 22.18 70.17 - 40.80 - - - - - --> 37.73 27.82 45.99 21.98 68.78 45.61 39.97 98.72 35.90 34.50 42.69 31.73 Liddle,Marshall - - - - - - - 87.75 - - - - --> 33.53 24.73 40.88 19.54 61.14 40.55 35.53 87.75 31.91 30.67 37.94 28.21 Lillard,James - - - 18.57 - - - - - - - - --> 31.87 23.50 38.84 18.57 58.10 38.53 33.76 83.38 30.32 29.14 36.05 26.80 Linford,Gary 33.87 - - - - - - - - - - - --> 33.87 24.97 41.28 19.73 61.74 40.95 35.88 88.62 32.23 30.97 38.32 28.49 Liou,Chris 31.92 - - - - - - - - - - - --> 31.92 23.53 38.91 18.60 58.19 38.59 33.82 83.52 30.37 29.19 36.11 26.85 Loyd,Steve - - - - - - - 101.80 - - - - --> 38.90 28.69 47.42 22.67 70.93 47.04 41.22 101.80 37.02 35.58 44.02 32.72 Mansour,Dean - - - 25.13 - - - - - - - - --> 43.14 31.81 52.58 25.13 78.64 52.15 45.70 112.87 41.05 39.45 48.80 36.28 Mansperger,Bill - - 87.43 - - - - - - - - - --> 71.73 52.89 87.43 41.79 130.77 86.73 76.00 187.69 68.26 65.60 81.15 60.33 Martinez,Jonathan - - - - - 47.30 - 100.43 - 34.15 - 33.99 --> 38.80 28.61 47.29 22.61 70.73 46.91 41.11 101.52 36.92 35.48 43.90 32.63 Maurer,Joseph - 30.73 - 25.20 72.63 - 43.50 - - 39.37 48.43 35.50 --> 41.97 30.94 51.16 24.45 76.51 50.74 44.46 109.82 39.94 38.38 47.48 35.30 Maurer,Sebastean - - - - - - - - - 41.27 54.96 41.49 --> 47.64 35.13 58.07 27.76 86.85 57.60 50.47 124.66 45.33 43.57 53.90 40.07 McCleary,Jackie 37.52 - - - - - - - - - - - --> 37.52 27.66 45.73 21.86 68.40 45.36 39.75 98.17 35.70 34.31 42.45 31.56 McCleary,Tom 34.52 - 43.53 - 62.75 - - - - - - - --> 34.88 25.72 42.51 20.32 63.59 42.17 36.95 91.27 33.19 31.90 39.46 29.34 McDermand,Bob 36.28 27.77 45.33 - 67.57 - 40.08 - 33.91 32.10 41.31 30.40 --> 36.59 26.98 44.60 21.32 66.71 44.24 38.77 95.75 34.82 33.46 41.40 30.78 McGill,Mary 44.52 - 48.48 - - - - - - - - - --> 42.08 31.03 51.29 24.52 76.72 50.88 44.58 110.11 40.04 38.48 47.61 35.39 McGorman,Frank - - 46.97 20.92 - - - - - - - - --> 37.19 27.42 45.33 21.67 67.80 44.97 39.40 97.32 35.39 34.01 42.08 31.28 McKinley,Paul 38.55 - - - - - - - - - - - --> 38.55 28.43 46.99 22.46 70.28 46.61 40.84 100.87 36.69 35.25 43.62 32.42 McKnight,Keith - - - - - - - - 36.39 - - - --> 38.24 28.20 46.61 22.28 69.72 46.24 40.52 100.07 36.39 34.97 43.27 32.16 Miller,Ed 36.32 26.78 43.72 21.25 64.30 43.40 38.08 93.12 33.70 33.42 41.72 - --> 36.04 26.58 43.93 21.00 65.71 43.58 38.19 94.31 34.30 32.96 40.78 30.32 Morales,Rodolfo - - - - - - 42.57 - - - - - --> 40.18 29.62 48.97 23.41 73.25 48.58 42.57 105.13 38.23 36.74 45.46 33.79 Nix,Mark - - - 22.67 - - - - - - - - --> 38.90 28.68 47.42 22.67 70.92 47.04 41.22 101.80 37.02 35.58 44.01 32.72 O'Hara,Tim - - - - - - - - - - - 29.99 --> 35.66 26.29 43.46 20.78 65.01 43.11 37.78 93.30 33.93 32.61 40.34 29.99 Ott,Chris - - - - - - - 80.65 - - - - --> 30.82 22.73 37.57 17.96 56.19 37.27 32.66 80.65 29.33 28.19 34.87 25.92 Paulsen,Anne - - 59.13 29.03 - - 51.57 - 52.83 - - - --> 50.55 37.28 61.62 29.46 92.17 61.12 53.56 132.29 48.11 46.23 57.20 42.52 Payne,Andy - - - - - - - - - - - 35.44 --> 42.13 31.07 51.36 24.55 76.82 50.95 44.64 110.26 40.10 38.53 47.67 35.44 Pereira,Lucas - - 54.27 29.13 80.57 51.95 46.25 120.00 - - - - --> 45.14 33.29 55.02 26.30 82.30 54.58 47.83 118.12 42.96 41.28 51.07 37.97 Petroski,Pete 39.25 28.97 - 23.25 73.20 - - - - - - - --> 39.64 29.23 48.33 23.10 72.28 47.93 42.00 103.74 37.73 36.26 44.86 33.35 Reddy,Achut - 30.52 50.50 23.00 - - - - - - - - --> 40.75 30.05 49.68 23.75 74.30 49.27 43.18 106.64 38.78 37.27 46.11 34.28 Richards,John - - - - - - - - - - 44.17 - --> 39.04 28.78 47.58 22.74 71.17 47.20 41.36 102.15 37.15 35.70 44.17 32.83 Rodamaker,Mark 36.82 27.38 44.90 - 69.27 - 39.47 - - - - - --> 37.20 27.43 45.35 21.68 67.83 44.98 39.42 97.35 35.40 34.02 42.09 31.29 Saenz,Alfred 31.67 - 40.62 - - - - - - - - - --> 32.48 23.95 39.60 18.93 59.22 39.28 34.42 85.00 30.91 29.71 36.75 27.32 Schatzman,John - - - - - - 37.32 - 33.15 32.15 - - --> 35.07 25.86 42.75 20.43 63.94 42.40 37.16 91.77 33.37 32.07 39.68 29.50 Schaub,Bill - - - - - - - 109.10 - - - - --> 41.69 30.74 50.82 24.29 76.01 50.41 44.17 109.10 39.68 38.13 47.17 35.07 Schaub,Darlene - - - - - - - 107.90 - - - - --> 41.23 30.41 50.26 24.03 75.18 49.86 43.69 107.90 39.24 37.71 46.65 34.68 Schimmerling,Ernest - - - - - - - - - - - 28.63 --> 34.04 25.10 41.49 19.83 62.05 41.15 36.06 89.07 32.39 31.13 38.51 28.63 Sewill,Rick - - - 24.25 - - - - - - - - --> 41.62 30.69 50.73 24.25 75.88 50.32 44.10 108.91 39.61 38.06 47.09 35.01 Sheetz,Chris - - - - - - - - 34.51 - - - --> 36.27 26.74 44.21 21.13 66.12 43.85 38.42 94.90 34.51 33.17 41.03 30.50 Shiff,Michael - - - - - - - 100.62 - - - - --> 38.45 28.35 46.87 22.40 70.10 46.49 40.74 100.62 36.59 35.16 43.51 32.34 Shigamoto,Kiyoshi - - - - - - - 92.65 - - - - --> 35.41 26.11 43.16 20.63 64.55 42.81 37.51 92.65 33.69 32.38 40.06 29.78 Sialm,Philippe - 25.40 - - - - - - - - - - --> 34.45 25.40 41.99 20.07 62.80 41.65 36.50 90.14 32.78 31.50 38.97 28.97 Smith,Wayne - - 46.13 23.82 67.95 46.38 39.92 105.93 37.65 36.10 41.52 - --> 38.67 28.51 47.14 22.53 70.50 46.75 40.97 101.19 36.80 35.36 43.75 32.52 Sokolsky,Larry - - - - - - - - 42.69 - - - --> 44.87 33.08 54.69 26.14 81.80 54.25 47.54 117.40 42.69 41.03 50.76 37.74 Sonck,Stef - 34.73 - - - - - - - - - - --> 47.10 34.73 57.42 27.45 85.88 56.95 49.91 123.26 44.83 43.08 53.30 39.62 Spiegel,Carolyn - - 87.43 - - - - - - - - - --> 71.73 52.89 87.43 41.79 130.77 86.73 76.00 187.69 68.26 65.60 81.15 60.33 Stern,Laura 31.70 - - - - - - - - - - - --> 31.70 23.37 38.64 18.47 57.79 38.33 33.59 82.95 30.17 28.99 35.87 26.66 Sternberg,Ted - - - - - - - - - - - 32.85 --> 39.06 28.80 47.61 22.76 71.21 47.22 41.38 102.20 37.17 35.72 44.19 32.85 Straub,Ken - - - - - - 39.08 - - - - - --> 36.89 27.20 44.97 21.49 67.25 44.60 39.08 96.53 35.10 33.73 41.74 31.03 Studenicka,Todd - - - - - - 37.45 90.38 - - - - --> 34.94 25.76 42.59 20.36 63.70 42.25 37.02 91.43 33.25 31.95 39.53 29.39 Tedder,Ron - - - 24.65 - - - - - - - - --> 42.31 31.19 51.57 24.65 77.13 51.15 44.82 110.70 40.26 38.69 47.87 35.58 Thorpe,Crystal - 34.87 - - - - - - - - - - --> 47.29 34.87 57.64 27.55 86.21 57.17 50.10 123.73 45.00 43.24 53.50 39.77 Titel,Barbara 48.55 36.03 61.53 - - - - - - - - - --> 49.29 36.35 60.09 28.72 89.87 59.60 52.23 128.98 46.91 45.08 55.77 41.46 Vigil,Pete - - - - - - - - 31.95 - - - --> 33.57 24.76 40.92 19.56 61.21 40.59 35.57 87.85 31.95 30.70 37.99 28.24 Viksne/Caltagirone - 34.38 - - - - - - - - - - --> 46.63 34.38 56.84 27.17 85.01 56.38 49.40 122.02 44.37 42.64 52.76 39.22 Waltjen,Lance - - 40.63 19.80 58.42 - 35.67 - 31.70 30.67 - 27.31 --> 33.18 24.47 40.45 19.34 60.50 40.12 35.16 86.83 31.58 30.35 37.55 27.91 Watson,Sterling - 36.03 - - - - - - - - - - --> 48.87 36.03 59.57 28.47 89.09 59.09 51.78 127.87 46.50 44.69 55.29 41.10 Wilder,Mike - 27.10 - - 65.62 - - - - - 40.43 29.52 --> 35.89 26.46 43.74 20.91 65.43 43.39 38.02 93.90 34.15 32.82 40.60 30.18 Wiley,John - - 41.18 - - - - - - - - - --> 33.79 24.91 41.18 19.69 61.60 40.85 35.80 88.41 32.15 30.90 38.23 28.42 Wilkinson,Jim - - - - 59.05 39.55 36.10 85.43 30.06 29.08 37.78 - --> 32.65 24.07 39.80 19.02 59.52 39.47 34.59 85.43 31.07 29.86 36.94 27.46 Willin,Jamie 31.50 22.33 - - - - - - - - - - --> 30.89 22.78 37.65 18.00 56.31 37.35 32.73 80.83 29.39 28.25 34.95 25.98 Winterfield,Kevin - - 39.55 - - 38.73 33.87 80.95 - - 35.85 27.43 --> 31.94 23.55 38.94 18.61 58.24 38.62 33.84 83.58 30.40 29.21 36.14 26.87 Womer,David 29.82 - - - - - - - - - - - --> 29.82 21.99 36.35 17.37 54.36 36.05 31.59 78.02 28.37 27.27 33.74 25.08 Wong,Leo - 25.72 - - - - 36.25 93.17 - - - - --> 34.89 25.73 42.53 20.33 63.62 42.19 36.97 91.31 33.21 31.91 39.48 29.35 Zaharis,Tom - - - - - - - 94.63 - - - - --> 36.16 26.67 44.08 21.07 65.93 43.73 38.32 94.63 34.42 33.07 40.92 30.42 Ziegler,Dave - - 52.43 - - - - - - - - - --> 43.01 31.72 52.43 25.06 78.42 52.01 45.57 112.56 40.93 39.34 48.67 36.18 total entries = 350 total riders = 146 total climbs = 12 final standard error = 0.0390772The following factors convert times from one climb to the other. For example, 20 minutes up Old La Honda (week04) is like 90minutes up Mt Hamilton (week08).
w climb 1 Montebello 2 Kings 3 Page 4 OLH 5 Diablo 6 Tam 7 E Hwy 9 8 Mt Hamilton 9 Bohlman 10 Quimby 11 Henry Coe 12 Sierra Rd week_conversions week01 week02 week03 week04 week05 week06 week07 week08 week09 week10 week11 week12 week01 1.0000 0.7374 1.2190 0.5827 1.8232 1.2091 1.0595 2.6167 0.9516 0.9145 1.1314 0.8411 week02 1.3562 1.0000 1.6531 0.7902 2.4725 1.6397 1.4369 3.5487 1.2906 1.2403 1.5344 1.1407 week03 0.8204 0.6049 1.0000 0.4780 1.4957 0.9919 0.8692 2.1467 0.7807 0.7502 0.9282 0.6900 week04 1.7163 1.2655 2.0921 1.0000 3.1290 2.0751 1.8184 4.4910 1.6332 1.5696 1.9418 1.4435 week05 0.5485 0.4044 0.6686 0.3196 1.0000 0.6632 0.5811 1.4353 0.5220 0.5016 0.6206 0.4613 week06 0.8271 0.6099 1.0082 0.4819 1.5079 1.0000 0.8763 2.1642 0.7871 0.7564 0.9358 0.6956 week07 0.9438 0.6959 1.1505 0.5499 1.7207 1.1412 1.0000 2.4697 0.8982 0.8632 1.0679 0.7939 week08 0.3822 0.2818 0.4658 0.2227 0.6967 0.4621 0.4049 1.0000 0.3637 0.3495 0.4324 0.3214 week09 1.0508 0.7748 1.2809 0.6123 1.9158 1.2706 1.1134 2.7497 1.0000 0.9610 1.1889 0.8839 week10 1.0935 0.8063 1.3329 0.6371 1.9936 1.3221 1.1585 2.8613 1.0406 1.0000 1.2372 0.9197 week11 0.8838 0.6517 1.0774 0.5150 1.6114 1.0686 0.9364 2.3128 0.8411 0.8083 1.0000 0.7434 week12 1.1889 0.8767 1.4492 0.6927 2.1676 1.4375 1.2597 3.1111 1.1314 1.0873 1.3452 1.0000Note: The square of residuals of the predicted logs of the times was the quantity minimized in the fitting. This is susceptable to problems with "outlier events", such as rider illness, jammed chains, or excessive side-wagers.
The following are the sorted OLH-equivalent-minutes of participating riders. All riders are basically on equal footing, independent of how many climbs they did. Note this is the result of a least-square-fit over all results, and will thus differ from the actual OLH time for riders who did OLH and at least one other climb in the series.
Kurreck,Tim 16.96 Connelly,Dan 17.32 Womer,David 17.37 Heerwagen,Tyler 17.55 Hertenstein,Tom 17.56 Hawley,Lorin 17.78 Duffy,Phil 17.90 Ott,Chris 17.96 Fox,Kevin 17.97 Deal,Steve 17.99 Willin,Jamie 18.00 "Anders,Brad" 18.07 Kitta,Geo 18.30 Bergstend,Don 18.33 Stern,Laura 18.47 Barmettler,Bart 18.48 Lillard,James 18.57 Liou,Chris 18.60 Winterfield,Kevin 18.61 Hsu,Brian 18.70 Gloli,Jim 18.75 Lafferty,Greg 18.82 Saenz,Alfred 18.93 Wilkinson,Jim 19.02 Endo,Jeff 19.20 Johnson,Kelly 19.31 Waltjen,Lance 19.34 Chase,Geoff 19.44 Cutts,Christopher 19.47 Hanles,Mike 19.51 Liddle,Marshall 19.54 Vigil,Pete 19.56 Wiley,John 19.69 Anderson,Don 19.73 Linford,Gary 19.73 Herms,Richard 19.78 Schimmerling,Ernest 19.83 Crockett,Richard 19.85 Kolek,Robert 19.94 Gatch,Rod 20.02 Sialm,Philippe 20.07 Axelrod,Valery 20.11 Bell,Jeff 20.12 Heerwagen,Belinda 20.14 McCleary,Tom 20.32 Wong,Leo 20.33 Studenicka,Todd 20.36 Schatzman,John 20.43 Lafayette,Andre 20.48 Blair,Steve 20.60 Hogan,Seana 20.60 Shigamoto,Kiyoshi 20.63 Kallewaard,Dan 20.71 Bloom,Greg 20.75 O'Hara,Tim 20.78 Anderson,Mark 20.79 Wilder,Mike 20.91 Miller,Ed 21.00 Emmel,John 21.02 Zaharis,Tom 21.07 Sheetz,Chris 21.13 McDermand,Bob 21.32 Blake,Susie 21.37 Straub,Ken 21.49 Hargrove,Val 21.50 Baldwin,Brad 21.63 McGorman,Frank 21.67 Rodamaker,Mark 21.68 Blake,John 21.71 Fulton,Dick 21.73 Alafouzos,John 21.80 McCleary,Jackie 21.86 Benishin,Liz 21.90 Leary,Brendan 21.98 Haughey,Jim 22.04 McKnight,Keith 22.28 Elgart,Linda 22.35 Shiff,Michael 22.40 McKinley,Paul 22.46 Capitolo,Greg 22.49 Smith,Wayne 22.53 Martinez,Jonathan 22.61 Loyd,Steve 22.67 Nix,Mark 22.67 Bone,Richard 22.70 Richards,John 22.74 Sternberg,Ted 22.76 Fisher,David 22.93 Brenninger,Paul 23.03 Petroski,Pete 23.10 Bayner,Alex 23.15 Hetchings,Matt 23.31 Clem,Mark 23.34 Farmer,Dana 23.40 Morales,Rodolfo 23.41 Reddy,Achut 23.75 Herms,Cheryl 23.77 Hurkmans,Henry 23.88 Lawrence,Jeff 23.89 Schaub,Darlene 24.03 Curran,Lisa 24.08 Sewill,Rick 24.25 Schaub,Bill 24.29 Maurer,Joseph 24.45 Gellin,Gary 24.48 McGill,Mary 24.52 Baker,James 24.54 Payne,Andy 24.55 Tedder,Ron 24.65 Chency,Brittain 24.89 Johnson,Kim 24.96 Heney,Kevin 25.00 Davis,Darrel 25.03 Ziegler,Dave 25.06 Mansour,Dean 25.13 Baker,Tom 25.21 Hutchinson,Marcia 25.85 Carry,Mark 26.02 Sokolsky,Larry 26.14 Gilbert,Rory 26.18 Pereira,Lucas 26.30 Hopping,Damien 26.85 Viksne/Caltagirone 27.17 Cawthorn,Brian 27.19 Keene,Charles 27.35 Sonck,Stef 27.45 Thorpe,Crystal 27.55 Maurer,Sebastean 27.76 Hogg,Andrew 27.78 Butts,Fred 28.32 Everman,Tom 28.33 Kaplan,Jonathan 28.37 Casseres,David 28.47 Watson,Sterling 28.47 Caragio,Mark 28.53 Bunting,George 28.63 Titel,Barbara 28.72 Paulsen,Anne 29.46 Burwald,Matt 32.08 Haas,Diane 32.08 Eaton,Jim 33.71 Cownery,John 41.79 Mansperger,Bill 41.79 Spiegel,Carolyn 41.79 Kinell,Don 42.33 Fernandez,Rouel 43.44