Hillclimb Regression

The following table shows first the rider's actual times in minutes, then the "predicted time" using the least-squares-log-time fit. Thanks to Theodore Sternberg for doing the original version of this analysis!!! (Ted did only week 12, so he figured he could save himself the effort of riding up all the other hills if he modeled things correctly...). The standard error of this fit was approximately 3.9%, so actual times on the climbs would probably differ by about this much (which is a lot!).

w  climb      
1  Montebello 
2  Kings Mt    
3  Page Mill       
4  OLH        
5  Diablo     
6  Tam        
7  E Hwy 9
8  Mt Hamilton
9  Bohlman Road
10 Quimby Road
11 Henry Coe
12 Sierra Rd

name                week01 week02 week03 week04 week05 week06 week07 week08 week09 week10 week11 week12 
"Anders,Brad"       -      22.87  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 31.01  22.87  37.80  18.07  56.54  37.50  32.86  81.15  29.51  28.36  35.09  26.08  
Alafouzos,John      40.00  27.52  45.40  21.50  65.87  45.58  40.17  99.87  34.78  33.95  40.92  31.87  
-->                 37.41  27.59  45.60  21.80  68.21  45.23  39.64  97.89  35.60  34.21  42.33  31.47  
Anderson,Don        -      -      -      -      -      -      -      88.62  -      -      -      -      
-->                 33.87  24.97  41.28  19.73  61.74  40.95  35.88  88.62  32.23  30.97  38.32  28.48  
Anderson,Mark       -      26.40  42.82  20.67  -      42.83  37.55  95.97  -      -      40.46  30.03  
-->                 35.67  26.30  43.48  20.79  65.04  43.13  37.80  93.35  33.95  32.62  40.36  30.00  
Axelrod,Valery      -      25.53  41.18  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      29.58  
-->                 34.52  25.45  42.08  20.11  62.94  41.74  36.58  90.33  32.85  31.57  39.06  29.04  
Baker,James         41.03  31.88  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 42.12  31.06  51.35  24.54  76.79  50.93  44.63  110.22 40.08  38.52  47.66  35.43  
Baker,Tom           -      31.90  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 43.26  31.90  52.74  25.21  78.87  52.31  45.84  113.21 41.17  39.56  48.95  36.39  
Baldwin,Brad        -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      31.22  
-->                 37.12  27.37  45.25  21.63  67.67  44.88  39.33  97.13  35.32  33.95  42.00  31.22  
Barmettler,Bart     -      -      -      -      -      -      -      81.57  -      28.82  36.72  -      
-->                 31.71  23.38  38.65  18.48  57.81  38.34  33.60  82.97  30.17  29.00  35.88  26.67  
Bayner,Alex         -      -      -      -      -      -      -      103.95 -      -      -      -      
-->                 39.73  29.29  48.42  23.15  72.43  48.03  42.09  103.95 37.80  36.33  44.95  33.41  
Bell,Jeff           -      -      -      20.12  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 34.53  25.46  42.09  20.12  62.94  41.74  36.58  90.34  32.86  31.57  39.06  29.04  
Benishin,Liz        -      -      45.92  22.57  69.53  45.55  39.85  96.73  35.55  33.52  42.33  31.72  
-->                 37.59  27.72  45.82  21.90  68.53  45.45  39.82  98.36  35.77  34.37  42.53  31.62  
Bergstend,Don       31.47  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 31.47  23.20  38.36  18.33  57.37  38.05  33.34  82.34  29.94  28.78  35.60  26.47  
Blair,Steve         35.25  25.95  -      20.75  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 35.35  26.07  43.09  20.60  64.45  42.74  37.46  92.50  33.64  32.33  40.00  29.73  
Blake,John          37.27  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 37.27  27.48  45.43  21.71  67.94  45.06  39.48  97.52  35.46  34.08  42.16  31.35  
Blake,Susie         35.13  -      46.67  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 36.67  27.04  44.71  21.37  66.86  44.34  38.86  95.97  34.90  33.54  41.49  30.85  
Bloom,Greg          -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      33.89  -      -      -      
-->                 35.61  26.26  43.41  20.75  64.92  43.06  37.73  93.18  33.89  32.57  40.29  29.95  
Bone,Richard        40.93  28.45  -      23.25  67.70  -      40.78  101.87 37.24  38.40  42.17  31.59  
-->                 38.96  28.73  47.50  22.70  71.04  47.11  41.28  101.96 37.08  35.63  44.09  32.77  
Brenninger,Paul     -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      44.72  -      
-->                 39.53  29.15  48.18  23.03  72.06  47.79  41.88  103.43 37.61  36.15  44.72  33.25  
Bunting,George      47.82  36.03  61.87  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 49.13  36.23  59.89  28.63  89.57  59.40  52.05  128.56 46.75  44.93  55.59  41.32  
Burwald,Matt        55.05  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 55.05  40.59  67.10  32.08  100.36 66.56  58.33  144.05 52.39  50.34  62.29  46.30  
Butts,Fred          49.98  -      -      27.18  86.75  -      51.73  126.63 -      45.13  -      41.70  
-->                 48.61  35.84  59.26  28.32  88.63  58.78  51.51  127.20 46.26  44.46  55.00  40.89  
Capitolo,Greg       -      -      47.05  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 38.60  28.46  47.05  22.49  70.37  46.67  40.90  101.00 36.73  35.30  43.67  32.47  
Caragio,Mark        55.05  -      53.10  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 48.97  36.11  59.69  28.53  89.28  59.21  51.88  128.14 46.60  44.78  55.41  41.19  
Carry,Mark          -      33.38  -      -      -      -      -      115.27 -      -      -      -      
-->                 44.66  32.93  54.44  26.02  81.42  54.00  47.32  116.86 42.50  40.84  50.53  37.56  
Casseres,David      -      36.03  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 48.87  36.03  59.57  28.47  89.09  59.09  51.78  127.87 46.50  44.69  55.29  41.10  
Cawthorn,Brian      -      -      -      -      85.07  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 46.66  34.40  56.88  27.19  85.07  56.42  49.44  122.09 44.40  42.67  52.79  39.25  
Chase,Geoff         -      24.60  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 33.36  24.60  40.67  19.44  60.82  40.34  35.35  87.30  31.75  30.51  37.75  28.06  
Chency,Brittain     -      31.50  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 42.72  31.50  52.07  24.89  77.88  51.65  45.26  111.79 40.65  39.07  48.33  35.93  
Clem,Mark           40.67  29.08  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 40.05  29.53  48.82  23.34  73.02  48.42  42.43  104.80 38.11  36.63  45.31  33.69  
Connelly,Dan        28.72  21.58  37.27  17.37  -      36.87  31.95  -      27.47  26.38  34.89  24.99  
-->                 29.72  21.91  36.23  17.32  54.18  35.93  31.49  77.76  28.28  27.18  33.62  25.00  
Cownery,John        -      -      87.43  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 71.73  52.89  87.43  41.79  130.77 86.73  76.00  187.69 68.26  65.60  81.15  60.33  
Crockett,Richard    -      -      -      19.85  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 34.07  25.12  41.53  19.85  62.11  41.19  36.10  89.15  32.42  31.16  38.55  28.65  
Curran,Lisa         -      -      -      -      -      -      43.65  110.92 -      -      -      34.00  
-->                 41.33  30.47  50.38  24.08  75.35  49.97  43.79  108.14 39.33  37.80  46.76  34.76  
Cutts,Christopher   -      -      -      -      60.92  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 33.41  24.64  40.73  19.47  60.92  40.40  35.40  87.43  31.80  30.56  37.80  28.10  
Davis,Darrel        -      -      52.37  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 42.96  31.68  52.37  25.03  78.32  51.94  45.52  112.41 40.88  39.29  48.61  36.13  
Deal,Steve          -      -      37.63  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 30.87  22.76  37.63  17.99  56.29  37.33  32.71  80.79  29.38  28.23  34.93  25.97  
Duffy,Phil          -      -      -      -      56.02  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 30.73  22.66  37.45  17.90  56.02  37.15  32.55  80.40  29.24  28.10  34.76  25.84  
Eaton,Jim           -      -      70.53  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 57.86  42.67  70.53  33.71  105.49 69.96  61.31  151.41 55.06  52.92  65.47  48.67  
Elgart,Linda        -      28.28  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 38.36  28.28  46.76  22.35  69.93  46.38  40.64  100.37 36.50  35.08  43.40  32.26  
Emmel,John          35.63  -      -      -      -      -      38.70  -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 36.08  26.60  43.98  21.02  65.77  43.62  38.22  94.40  34.33  32.99  40.82  30.34  
Endo,Jeff           32.95  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 32.95  24.30  40.16  19.20  60.07  39.84  34.91  86.22  31.36  30.13  37.28  27.71  
Everman,Tom         48.62  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 48.62  35.85  59.26  28.33  88.64  58.78  51.51  127.22 46.26  44.46  55.01  40.89  
Farmer,Dana         -      -      -      -      -      -      -      105.08 -      -      -      -      
-->                 40.16  29.61  48.95  23.40  73.21  48.56  42.55  105.08 38.22  36.73  45.44  33.78  
Fernandez,Rouel     -      -      -      -      -      -      -      195.08 -      -      -      -      
-->                 74.55  54.97  90.88  43.44  135.92 90.14  78.99  195.08 70.95  68.18  84.35  62.71  
Fisher,David        38.77  28.62  49.92  23.10  71.82  -      40.92  -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 39.36  29.02  47.97  22.93  71.75  47.58  41.70  102.98 37.45  35.99  44.53  33.10  
Fox,Kevin           30.83  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 30.83  22.74  37.58  17.97  56.21  37.28  32.67  80.68  29.34  28.20  34.89  25.93  
Fulton,Dick         -      -      -      21.60  68.10  -      39.70  -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 37.30  27.50  45.46  21.73  68.00  45.10  39.52  97.60  35.49  34.11  42.20  31.37  
Gatch,Rod           33.82  25.12  42.28  -      59.80  40.55  36.07  90.72  31.76  33.78  40.61  -      
-->                 34.36  25.34  41.89  20.02  62.65  41.55  36.41  89.92  32.70  31.43  38.88  28.90  
Gellin,Gary         -      -      -      24.48  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 42.02  30.98  51.22  24.48  76.61  50.81  44.52  109.95 39.99  38.43  47.54  35.34  
Gilbert,Rory        44.93  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 44.93  33.13  54.77  26.18  81.92  54.33  47.61  117.58 42.76  41.09  50.84  37.79  
Gloli,Jim           -      -      -      -      58.68  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 32.19  23.73  39.24  18.75  58.68  38.92  34.10  84.23  30.63  29.44  36.42  27.07  
Haas,Diane          55.05  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 55.05  40.59  67.10  32.08  100.36 66.56  58.33  144.05 52.39  50.34  62.29  46.30  
Hanles,Mike         -      -      -      -      -      -      -      87.63  -      -      -      -      
-->                 33.49  24.69  40.82  19.51  61.06  40.49  35.48  87.63  31.87  30.63  37.89  28.17  
Hargrove,Val        -      -      -      21.50  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 36.90  27.21  44.98  21.50  67.27  44.61  39.10  96.56  35.11  33.75  41.75  31.04  
Haughey,Jim         37.78  27.92  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 37.82  27.89  46.10  22.04  68.95  45.73  40.07  98.97  35.99  34.59  42.79  31.81  
Hawley,Lorin        -      -      -      17.78  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 30.52  22.50  37.20  17.78  55.64  36.90  32.34  79.86  29.04  27.91  34.53  25.67  
Heerwagen,Belinda   -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      33.30  -      -      28.71  
-->                 34.56  25.48  42.13  20.14  63.01  41.78  36.62  90.43  32.89  31.60  39.10  29.07  
Heerwagen,Tyler     -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      29.34  -      -      24.75  
-->                 30.12  22.21  36.72  17.55  54.92  36.42  31.91  78.82  28.66  27.55  34.08  25.34  
Heney,Kevin         -      -      -      25.00  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 42.91  31.64  52.30  25.00  78.22  51.88  45.46  112.27 40.83  39.24  48.55  36.09  
Herms,Cheryl        -      31.08  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      36.50  -      33.93  
-->                 40.79  30.08  49.72  23.77  74.37  49.32  43.22  106.74 38.82  37.31  46.15  34.31  
Herms,Richard       -      24.42  -      20.00  64.03  42.90  -      85.38  32.67  29.95  38.89  28.23  
-->                 33.95  25.03  41.39  19.78  61.90  41.05  35.97  88.84  32.31  31.05  38.41  28.56  
Hertenstein,Tom     -      22.22  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 30.13  22.22  36.73  17.56  54.93  36.43  31.92  78.84  28.67  27.55  34.09  25.34  
Hetchings,Matt      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      45.27  -      
-->                 40.01  29.50  48.77  23.31  72.94  48.37  42.39  104.69 38.07  36.59  45.27  33.65  
Hogan,Seana         -      -      -      -      -      -      -      92.50  -      -      -      -      
-->                 35.35  26.07  43.09  20.60  64.45  42.74  37.45  92.50  33.64  32.33  40.00  29.73  
Hogg,Andrew         47.68  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 47.68  35.16  58.12  27.78  86.93  57.65  50.52  124.77 45.38  43.61  53.95  40.11  
Hopping,Damien      -      -      -      22.52  106.83 -      45.80  -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 46.09  33.98  56.18  26.85  84.02  55.72  48.83  120.60 43.86  42.15  52.14  38.76  
Hsu,Brian           -      -      -      -      58.52  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 32.10  23.67  39.12  18.70  58.52  38.81  34.01  83.99  30.54  29.35  36.31  27.00  
Hurkmans,Henry      -      30.95  47.28  23.50  -      -      45.58  -      -      39.50  43.97  -      
-->                 40.99  30.22  49.96  23.88  74.73  49.56  43.43  107.26 39.01  37.49  46.38  34.48  
Hutchinson,Marcia   42.75  -      54.60  26.35  80.45  -      47.62  -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 44.36  32.71  54.07  25.85  80.87  53.63  47.00  116.07 42.21  40.57  50.19  37.31  
Johnson,Kelly       -      24.43  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 33.14  24.43  40.39  19.31  60.41  40.06  35.11  86.71  31.53  30.30  37.49  27.87  
Johnson,Kim         -      -      -      -      -      -      -      112.08 -      -      -      -      
-->                 42.83  31.58  52.21  24.96  78.09  51.79  45.38  112.08 40.76  39.17  48.46  36.03  
Kallewaard,Dan      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      29.90  
-->                 35.55  26.21  43.33  20.71  64.81  42.98  37.66  93.01  33.83  32.51  40.22  29.90  
Kaplan,Jonathan     -      35.90  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 48.69  35.90  59.35  28.37  88.76  58.87  51.58  127.40 46.33  44.53  55.09  40.95  
Keene,Charles       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      53.11  -      
-->                 46.94  34.62  57.22  27.35  85.59  56.76  49.74  122.84 44.67  42.93  53.11  39.49  
Kinell,Don          -      -      -      -      -      -      -      190.08 -      -      -      -      
-->                 72.64  53.56  88.55  42.33  132.44 87.83  76.96  190.08 69.13  66.43  82.19  61.10  
Kitta,Geo           -      22.55  39.30  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 31.40  23.15  38.28  18.30  57.25  37.97  33.27  82.17  29.88  28.72  35.53  26.41  
Kolek,Robert        -      -      41.72  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 34.22  25.23  41.72  19.94  62.39  41.38  36.26  89.55  32.57  31.30  38.72  28.79  
Kurreck,Tim         28.50  -      36.25  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 29.11  21.47  35.49  16.96  53.08  35.20  30.85  76.18  27.70  26.62  32.94  24.49  
Lafayette,Andre     -      -      -      -      63.05  -      37.83  -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 35.14  25.91  42.84  20.48  64.07  42.49  37.23  91.95  33.44  32.14  39.76  29.56  
Lafferty,Greg       32.30  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 32.30  23.82  39.37  18.82  58.89  39.05  34.22  84.52  30.74  29.54  36.55  27.17  
Lawrence,Jeff       40.47  -      -      -      -      -      -      106.87 -      -      -      35.08  
-->                 41.00  30.23  49.98  23.89  74.75  49.58  43.44  107.29 39.02  37.50  46.39  34.49  
Leary,Brendan       36.58  27.63  45.43  22.18  70.17  -      40.80  -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 37.73  27.82  45.99  21.98  68.78  45.61  39.97  98.72  35.90  34.50  42.69  31.73  
Liddle,Marshall     -      -      -      -      -      -      -      87.75  -      -      -      -      
-->                 33.53  24.73  40.88  19.54  61.14  40.55  35.53  87.75  31.91  30.67  37.94  28.21  
Lillard,James       -      -      -      18.57  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 31.87  23.50  38.84  18.57  58.10  38.53  33.76  83.38  30.32  29.14  36.05  26.80  
Linford,Gary        33.87  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 33.87  24.97  41.28  19.73  61.74  40.95  35.88  88.62  32.23  30.97  38.32  28.49  
Liou,Chris          31.92  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 31.92  23.53  38.91  18.60  58.19  38.59  33.82  83.52  30.37  29.19  36.11  26.85  
Loyd,Steve          -      -      -      -      -      -      -      101.80 -      -      -      -      
-->                 38.90  28.69  47.42  22.67  70.93  47.04  41.22  101.80 37.02  35.58  44.02  32.72  
Mansour,Dean        -      -      -      25.13  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 43.14  31.81  52.58  25.13  78.64  52.15  45.70  112.87 41.05  39.45  48.80  36.28  
Mansperger,Bill     -      -      87.43  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 71.73  52.89  87.43  41.79  130.77 86.73  76.00  187.69 68.26  65.60  81.15  60.33  
Martinez,Jonathan   -      -      -      -      -      47.30  -      100.43 -      34.15  -      33.99  
-->                 38.80  28.61  47.29  22.61  70.73  46.91  41.11  101.52 36.92  35.48  43.90  32.63  
Maurer,Joseph       -      30.73  -      25.20  72.63  -      43.50  -      -      39.37  48.43  35.50  
-->                 41.97  30.94  51.16  24.45  76.51  50.74  44.46  109.82 39.94  38.38  47.48  35.30  
Maurer,Sebastean    -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      41.27  54.96  41.49  
-->                 47.64  35.13  58.07  27.76  86.85  57.60  50.47  124.66 45.33  43.57  53.90  40.07  
McCleary,Jackie     37.52  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 37.52  27.66  45.73  21.86  68.40  45.36  39.75  98.17  35.70  34.31  42.45  31.56  
McCleary,Tom        34.52  -      43.53  -      62.75  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 34.88  25.72  42.51  20.32  63.59  42.17  36.95  91.27  33.19  31.90  39.46  29.34  
McDermand,Bob       36.28  27.77  45.33  -      67.57  -      40.08  -      33.91  32.10  41.31  30.40  
-->                 36.59  26.98  44.60  21.32  66.71  44.24  38.77  95.75  34.82  33.46  41.40  30.78  
McGill,Mary         44.52  -      48.48  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 42.08  31.03  51.29  24.52  76.72  50.88  44.58  110.11 40.04  38.48  47.61  35.39  
McGorman,Frank      -      -      46.97  20.92  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 37.19  27.42  45.33  21.67  67.80  44.97  39.40  97.32  35.39  34.01  42.08  31.28  
McKinley,Paul       38.55  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 38.55  28.43  46.99  22.46  70.28  46.61  40.84  100.87 36.69  35.25  43.62  32.42  
McKnight,Keith      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      36.39  -      -      -      
-->                 38.24  28.20  46.61  22.28  69.72  46.24  40.52  100.07 36.39  34.97  43.27  32.16  
Miller,Ed           36.32  26.78  43.72  21.25  64.30  43.40  38.08  93.12  33.70  33.42  41.72  -      
-->                 36.04  26.58  43.93  21.00  65.71  43.58  38.19  94.31  34.30  32.96  40.78  30.32  
Morales,Rodolfo     -      -      -      -      -      -      42.57  -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 40.18  29.62  48.97  23.41  73.25  48.58  42.57  105.13 38.23  36.74  45.46  33.79  
Nix,Mark            -      -      -      22.67  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 38.90  28.68  47.42  22.67  70.92  47.04  41.22  101.80 37.02  35.58  44.01  32.72  
O'Hara,Tim          -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      29.99  
-->                 35.66  26.29  43.46  20.78  65.01  43.11  37.78  93.30  33.93  32.61  40.34  29.99  
Ott,Chris           -      -      -      -      -      -      -      80.65  -      -      -      -      
-->                 30.82  22.73  37.57  17.96  56.19  37.27  32.66  80.65  29.33  28.19  34.87  25.92  
Paulsen,Anne        -      -      59.13  29.03  -      -      51.57  -      52.83  -      -      -      
-->                 50.55  37.28  61.62  29.46  92.17  61.12  53.56  132.29 48.11  46.23  57.20  42.52  
Payne,Andy          -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      35.44  
-->                 42.13  31.07  51.36  24.55  76.82  50.95  44.64  110.26 40.10  38.53  47.67  35.44  
Pereira,Lucas       -      -      54.27  29.13  80.57  51.95  46.25  120.00 -      -      -      -      
-->                 45.14  33.29  55.02  26.30  82.30  54.58  47.83  118.12 42.96  41.28  51.07  37.97  
Petroski,Pete       39.25  28.97  -      23.25  73.20  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 39.64  29.23  48.33  23.10  72.28  47.93  42.00  103.74 37.73  36.26  44.86  33.35  
Reddy,Achut         -      30.52  50.50  23.00  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 40.75  30.05  49.68  23.75  74.30  49.27  43.18  106.64 38.78  37.27  46.11  34.28  
Richards,John       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      44.17  -      
-->                 39.04  28.78  47.58  22.74  71.17  47.20  41.36  102.15 37.15  35.70  44.17  32.83  
Rodamaker,Mark      36.82  27.38  44.90  -      69.27  -      39.47  -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 37.20  27.43  45.35  21.68  67.83  44.98  39.42  97.35  35.40  34.02  42.09  31.29  
Saenz,Alfred        31.67  -      40.62  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 32.48  23.95  39.60  18.93  59.22  39.28  34.42  85.00  30.91  29.71  36.75  27.32  
Schatzman,John      -      -      -      -      -      -      37.32  -      33.15  32.15  -      -      
-->                 35.07  25.86  42.75  20.43  63.94  42.40  37.16  91.77  33.37  32.07  39.68  29.50  
Schaub,Bill         -      -      -      -      -      -      -      109.10 -      -      -      -      
-->                 41.69  30.74  50.82  24.29  76.01  50.41  44.17  109.10 39.68  38.13  47.17  35.07  
Schaub,Darlene      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      107.90 -      -      -      -      
-->                 41.23  30.41  50.26  24.03  75.18  49.86  43.69  107.90 39.24  37.71  46.65  34.68  
Schimmerling,Ernest -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      28.63  
-->                 34.04  25.10  41.49  19.83  62.05  41.15  36.06  89.07  32.39  31.13  38.51  28.63  
Sewill,Rick         -      -      -      24.25  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 41.62  30.69  50.73  24.25  75.88  50.32  44.10  108.91 39.61  38.06  47.09  35.01  
Sheetz,Chris        -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      34.51  -      -      -      
-->                 36.27  26.74  44.21  21.13  66.12  43.85  38.42  94.90  34.51  33.17  41.03  30.50  
Shiff,Michael       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      100.62 -      -      -      -      
-->                 38.45  28.35  46.87  22.40  70.10  46.49  40.74  100.62 36.59  35.16  43.51  32.34  
Shigamoto,Kiyoshi   -      -      -      -      -      -      -      92.65  -      -      -      -      
-->                 35.41  26.11  43.16  20.63  64.55  42.81  37.51  92.65  33.69  32.38  40.06  29.78  
Sialm,Philippe      -      25.40  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 34.45  25.40  41.99  20.07  62.80  41.65  36.50  90.14  32.78  31.50  38.97  28.97  
Smith,Wayne         -      -      46.13  23.82  67.95  46.38  39.92  105.93 37.65  36.10  41.52  -      
-->                 38.67  28.51  47.14  22.53  70.50  46.75  40.97  101.19 36.80  35.36  43.75  32.52  
Sokolsky,Larry      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      42.69  -      -      -      
-->                 44.87  33.08  54.69  26.14  81.80  54.25  47.54  117.40 42.69  41.03  50.76  37.74  
Sonck,Stef          -      34.73  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 47.10  34.73  57.42  27.45  85.88  56.95  49.91  123.26 44.83  43.08  53.30  39.62  
Spiegel,Carolyn     -      -      87.43  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 71.73  52.89  87.43  41.79  130.77 86.73  76.00  187.69 68.26  65.60  81.15  60.33  
Stern,Laura         31.70  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 31.70  23.37  38.64  18.47  57.79  38.33  33.59  82.95  30.17  28.99  35.87  26.66  
Sternberg,Ted       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      32.85  
-->                 39.06  28.80  47.61  22.76  71.21  47.22  41.38  102.20 37.17  35.72  44.19  32.85  
Straub,Ken          -      -      -      -      -      -      39.08  -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 36.89  27.20  44.97  21.49  67.25  44.60  39.08  96.53  35.10  33.73  41.74  31.03  
Studenicka,Todd     -      -      -      -      -      -      37.45  90.38  -      -      -      -      
-->                 34.94  25.76  42.59  20.36  63.70  42.25  37.02  91.43  33.25  31.95  39.53  29.39  
Tedder,Ron          -      -      -      24.65  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 42.31  31.19  51.57  24.65  77.13  51.15  44.82  110.70 40.26  38.69  47.87  35.58  
Thorpe,Crystal      -      34.87  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 47.29  34.87  57.64  27.55  86.21  57.17  50.10  123.73 45.00  43.24  53.50  39.77  
Titel,Barbara       48.55  36.03  61.53  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 49.29  36.35  60.09  28.72  89.87  59.60  52.23  128.98 46.91  45.08  55.77  41.46  
Vigil,Pete          -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      31.95  -      -      -      
-->                 33.57  24.76  40.92  19.56  61.21  40.59  35.57  87.85  31.95  30.70  37.99  28.24  
Viksne/Caltagirone  -      34.38  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 46.63  34.38  56.84  27.17  85.01  56.38  49.40  122.02 44.37  42.64  52.76  39.22  
Waltjen,Lance       -      -      40.63  19.80  58.42  -      35.67  -      31.70  30.67  -      27.31  
-->                 33.18  24.47  40.45  19.34  60.50  40.12  35.16  86.83  31.58  30.35  37.55  27.91  
Watson,Sterling     -      36.03  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 48.87  36.03  59.57  28.47  89.09  59.09  51.78  127.87 46.50  44.69  55.29  41.10  
Wilder,Mike         -      27.10  -      -      65.62  -      -      -      -      -      40.43  29.52  
-->                 35.89  26.46  43.74  20.91  65.43  43.39  38.02  93.90  34.15  32.82  40.60  30.18  
Wiley,John          -      -      41.18  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 33.79  24.91  41.18  19.69  61.60  40.85  35.80  88.41  32.15  30.90  38.23  28.42  
Wilkinson,Jim       -      -      -      -      59.05  39.55  36.10  85.43  30.06  29.08  37.78  -      
-->                 32.65  24.07  39.80  19.02  59.52  39.47  34.59  85.43  31.07  29.86  36.94  27.46  
Willin,Jamie        31.50  22.33  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 30.89  22.78  37.65  18.00  56.31  37.35  32.73  80.83  29.39  28.25  34.95  25.98  
Winterfield,Kevin   -      -      39.55  -      -      38.73  33.87  80.95  -      -      35.85  27.43  
-->                 31.94  23.55  38.94  18.61  58.24  38.62  33.84  83.58  30.40  29.21  36.14  26.87  
Womer,David         29.82  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 29.82  21.99  36.35  17.37  54.36  36.05  31.59  78.02  28.37  27.27  33.74  25.08  
Wong,Leo            -      25.72  -      -      -      -      36.25  93.17  -      -      -      -      
-->                 34.89  25.73  42.53  20.33  63.62  42.19  36.97  91.31  33.21  31.91  39.48  29.35  
Zaharis,Tom         -      -      -      -      -      -      -      94.63  -      -      -      -      
-->                 36.16  26.67  44.08  21.07  65.93  43.73  38.32  94.63  34.42  33.07  40.92  30.42  
Ziegler,Dave        -      -      52.43  -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      
-->                 43.01  31.72  52.43  25.06  78.42  52.01  45.57  112.56 40.93  39.34  48.67  36.18  

total entries = 350
total riders = 146
total climbs = 12
final standard error = 0.0390772


The following factors convert times from one climb to the other. For example, 20 minutes up Old La Honda (week04) is like 90minutes up Mt Hamilton (week08).

w  climb      
1  Montebello 
2  Kings     
3  Page       
4  OLH        
5  Diablo     
6  Tam        
7  E Hwy 9
8  Mt Hamilton
9  Bohlman    
10 Quimby     
11 Henry Coe
12 Sierra Rd

week_conversions    week01 week02 week03 week04 week05 week06 week07 week08 week09 week10 week11 week12 
week01              1.0000 0.7374 1.2190 0.5827 1.8232 1.2091 1.0595 2.6167 0.9516 0.9145 1.1314 0.8411 
week02              1.3562 1.0000 1.6531 0.7902 2.4725 1.6397 1.4369 3.5487 1.2906 1.2403 1.5344 1.1407 
week03              0.8204 0.6049 1.0000 0.4780 1.4957 0.9919 0.8692 2.1467 0.7807 0.7502 0.9282 0.6900 
week04              1.7163 1.2655 2.0921 1.0000 3.1290 2.0751 1.8184 4.4910 1.6332 1.5696 1.9418 1.4435 
week05              0.5485 0.4044 0.6686 0.3196 1.0000 0.6632 0.5811 1.4353 0.5220 0.5016 0.6206 0.4613 
week06              0.8271 0.6099 1.0082 0.4819 1.5079 1.0000 0.8763 2.1642 0.7871 0.7564 0.9358 0.6956 
week07              0.9438 0.6959 1.1505 0.5499 1.7207 1.1412 1.0000 2.4697 0.8982 0.8632 1.0679 0.7939 
week08              0.3822 0.2818 0.4658 0.2227 0.6967 0.4621 0.4049 1.0000 0.3637 0.3495 0.4324 0.3214 
week09              1.0508 0.7748 1.2809 0.6123 1.9158 1.2706 1.1134 2.7497 1.0000 0.9610 1.1889 0.8839 
week10              1.0935 0.8063 1.3329 0.6371 1.9936 1.3221 1.1585 2.8613 1.0406 1.0000 1.2372 0.9197 
week11              0.8838 0.6517 1.0774 0.5150 1.6114 1.0686 0.9364 2.3128 0.8411 0.8083 1.0000 0.7434 
week12              1.1889 0.8767 1.4492 0.6927 2.1676 1.4375 1.2597 3.1111 1.1314 1.0873 1.3452 1.0000 

Note: The square of residuals of the predicted logs of the times was the quantity minimized in the fitting. This is susceptable to problems with "outlier events", such as rider illness, jammed chains, or excessive side-wagers.


The following are the sorted OLH-equivalent-minutes of participating riders. All riders are basically on equal footing, independent of how many climbs they did. Note this is the result of a least-square-fit over all results, and will thus differ from the actual OLH time for riders who did OLH and at least one other climb in the series.

Kurreck,Tim         16.96 
Connelly,Dan        17.32 
Womer,David         17.37 
Heerwagen,Tyler     17.55 
Hertenstein,Tom     17.56 
Hawley,Lorin        17.78 
Duffy,Phil          17.90 
Ott,Chris           17.96 
Fox,Kevin           17.97 
Deal,Steve          17.99 
Willin,Jamie        18.00 
"Anders,Brad"       18.07 
Kitta,Geo           18.30 
Bergstend,Don       18.33 
Stern,Laura         18.47 
Barmettler,Bart     18.48 
Lillard,James       18.57 
Liou,Chris          18.60 
Winterfield,Kevin   18.61 
Hsu,Brian           18.70 
Gloli,Jim           18.75 
Lafferty,Greg       18.82 
Saenz,Alfred        18.93 
Wilkinson,Jim       19.02 
Endo,Jeff           19.20 
Johnson,Kelly       19.31 
Waltjen,Lance       19.34 
Chase,Geoff         19.44 
Cutts,Christopher   19.47 
Hanles,Mike         19.51 
Liddle,Marshall     19.54 
Vigil,Pete          19.56 
Wiley,John          19.69 
Anderson,Don        19.73 
Linford,Gary        19.73 
Herms,Richard       19.78 
Schimmerling,Ernest 19.83 
Crockett,Richard    19.85 
Kolek,Robert        19.94 
Gatch,Rod           20.02 
Sialm,Philippe      20.07 
Axelrod,Valery      20.11 
Bell,Jeff           20.12 
Heerwagen,Belinda   20.14 
McCleary,Tom        20.32 
Wong,Leo            20.33 
Studenicka,Todd     20.36 
Schatzman,John      20.43 
Lafayette,Andre     20.48 
Blair,Steve         20.60 
Hogan,Seana         20.60 
Shigamoto,Kiyoshi   20.63 
Kallewaard,Dan      20.71 
Bloom,Greg          20.75 
O'Hara,Tim          20.78 
Anderson,Mark       20.79 
Wilder,Mike         20.91 
Miller,Ed           21.00 
Emmel,John          21.02 
Zaharis,Tom         21.07 
Sheetz,Chris        21.13 
McDermand,Bob       21.32 
Blake,Susie         21.37 
Straub,Ken          21.49 
Hargrove,Val        21.50 
Baldwin,Brad        21.63 
McGorman,Frank      21.67 
Rodamaker,Mark      21.68 
Blake,John          21.71 
Fulton,Dick         21.73 
Alafouzos,John      21.80 
McCleary,Jackie     21.86 
Benishin,Liz        21.90 
Leary,Brendan       21.98 
Haughey,Jim         22.04 
McKnight,Keith      22.28 
Elgart,Linda        22.35 
Shiff,Michael       22.40 
McKinley,Paul       22.46 
Capitolo,Greg       22.49 
Smith,Wayne         22.53 
Martinez,Jonathan   22.61 
Loyd,Steve          22.67 
Nix,Mark            22.67 
Bone,Richard        22.70 
Richards,John       22.74 
Sternberg,Ted       22.76 
Fisher,David        22.93 
Brenninger,Paul     23.03 
Petroski,Pete       23.10 
Bayner,Alex         23.15 
Hetchings,Matt      23.31 
Clem,Mark           23.34 
Farmer,Dana         23.40 
Morales,Rodolfo     23.41 
Reddy,Achut         23.75 
Herms,Cheryl        23.77 
Hurkmans,Henry      23.88 
Lawrence,Jeff       23.89 
Schaub,Darlene      24.03 
Curran,Lisa         24.08 
Sewill,Rick         24.25 
Schaub,Bill         24.29 
Maurer,Joseph       24.45 
Gellin,Gary         24.48 
McGill,Mary         24.52 
Baker,James         24.54 
Payne,Andy          24.55 
Tedder,Ron          24.65 
Chency,Brittain     24.89 
Johnson,Kim         24.96 
Heney,Kevin         25.00 
Davis,Darrel        25.03 
Ziegler,Dave        25.06 
Mansour,Dean        25.13 
Baker,Tom           25.21 
Hutchinson,Marcia   25.85 
Carry,Mark          26.02 
Sokolsky,Larry      26.14 
Gilbert,Rory        26.18 
Pereira,Lucas       26.30 
Hopping,Damien      26.85 
Viksne/Caltagirone  27.17 
Cawthorn,Brian      27.19 
Keene,Charles       27.35 
Sonck,Stef          27.45 
Thorpe,Crystal      27.55 
Maurer,Sebastean    27.76 
Hogg,Andrew         27.78 
Butts,Fred          28.32 
Everman,Tom         28.33 
Kaplan,Jonathan     28.37 
Casseres,David      28.47 
Watson,Sterling     28.47 
Caragio,Mark        28.53 
Bunting,George      28.63 
Titel,Barbara       28.72 
Paulsen,Anne        29.46 
Burwald,Matt        32.08 
Haas,Diane          32.08 
Eaton,Jim           33.71 
Cownery,John        41.79 
Mansperger,Bill     41.79 
Spiegel,Carolyn     41.79 
Kinell,Don          42.33 
Fernandez,Rouel     43.44